Beyer Speed Ratings - How Reliable Are They?

If I were to tell you that the Beyer SpeedWhen will this madness end?
Ratings published in the Daily Racing Form areHas the Beyer Speed Rating system been
worthless, what would you say?  At one time, Iadjusted to take into account the various
would have said, "Man, you're crazy! The Beyerrestrictions now attached to many claiming races?
numbers are a gift from God!"  Not any more. For example, how do they handle the data for
I first read Andrew Beyer's book, "Pickingthis horse?  In its next to last start it won a
Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide," in the mid-1970s.$10,000 claiming race for non-winners of two
 I, like many other handicappers, becameraces lifetime [Clm 10000n2l].  In its last start it
convinced that Beyer had discovered the Holywon a $16,000 claiming race with no restrictions
Grail of horse racing.attached [Clm 16000].
I remember spending hours creating my own parDo they have a seperate category for $10,000n2l
times.  I remember creating my own speedor do they lump all $10,000 claiming races
ratings based on those par times.  I remembertogether?  What do they do if the race at the
adjusting speed ratings based on the "daily track$16,000 level was run in a slower time than the
variance" for any given day.  In reality, it didn'trace at the $10,000 level?  Was the race for a
improve my handicapping all that much.$16,000 tag made up of horses that have never
In the thirty years that have passed, I havewon a $16,000 claiming race?  Did it include
gotten older and wiser.  I can now state withouthorses that have won at higher levels?
hesitation that adjusting race times based onIf you took all those things into consideration (and
some mythical track variance is just plain ludicrous.I'm sure there are more things to consider), by
The Beyer Speed Ratings are supposed to bethe time you worked up an accurate set of par
interchangable from one track to another.  Theytimes for just one track, you might still find them
are supposed to be based on par times for everyworthless.
distance and class level at every track in theI have found that a horse that is fit and ready to
country.  However, they are such an unreliablerun will usually run a race in a raw time that is
guide to predicting the outcome of future raceswithin 3/5 of a second of its best raw time at
that some handicappers have developed methodsany given distance.  The horse will do that while
of adjusting the Beyer number to arrive at yetracing at different tracks.  That is especially true
another number that is supposed to be betterof sprinters.
than the Beyer number.