| When you go to a racetrack or a satellite racing | | | | To make an extremely small profit from your |
| facility do you have money in your pocket? The | | | | investment, are you capable of deciding 54-85% |
| answer is most likely "Yes!" Not many people go | | | | of the time which odds-on favorites will win and |
| to the races just to watch the horses run. Yet | | | | which will get beaten? |
| most likely you, like 90% of the other racing fans | | | | The answer is likely "No!" So, why do you bet on |
| who attend the races on any given day, will leave | | | | odds-on favorites? You cannot make money on |
| with less money than you when you arrived. | | | | them long-term. Yet, you, like so many folks at |
| So what separates the winners from the losers? | | | | the track, get suckered into betting on them over |
| If you try to pick the winner in every race and | | | | and over again? |
| back that pick with a wager, you will go home a | | | | I believe the answer for most people is ego |
| loser more often than not. That is why when you | | | | related. Most folks would (subconsciously) rather |
| go to a horse racing facility and keep your ears | | | | lose a bet on a low-priced horse that finishes |
| open, you will hear this question repeated over | | | | second or third than they would a bet on a 9/1 |
| and over: "Who do you like?" Yet a far better | | | | long shot that finishes seventh or eighth. They let |
| question for them to ask would be, "Which horse | | | | their ego get in the way of making sound wagers. |
| should I bet?" To quote a Las Vegas professional, | | | | For many of you, that stems from an inherent |
| "Picking winners doesn't mean anything." | | | | belief that you "know everything" there is to |
| If you like two horses in a race and one of them | | | | know about horse racing. You have read every |
| is the odds-on favorite and the other one is going | | | | handicapping book you could get your hands on. |
| to post at 5/1, which horse should you bet? Most | | | | You have attended numerous handicapping |
| folks will follow the crowd and bet the favorite, | | | | seminars at your local racing establishment. You |
| yet the better bet every time is the horse with 5 | | | | have listened to commentators on television extoll |
| 1 odds. | | | | the virtues of one favorite after another. In |
| Let me explain why that statement is true. | | | | essence, you have been brainwashed into thinking |
| If you bet $2 on the odds-on favorite in a series | | | | you can make money following the guidelines |
| of 100 races and you cash 40 tickets, you will | | | | outlined in books and seminars and from the |
| lose a minimum of $48 (assuming the horses | | | | comments you hear tossed about by so-called |
| went to post at high odds of 9/10) over that | | | | experts. The problem is, that is what the vast |
| series of 100 races. Conversely, if you place 100 | | | | majority of horse players are doing. Hence, you |
| $2 bets on another horse you like going to post | | | | are beaten before you have even started. |
| at odds of 4/1 or higher in each race in that | | | | Yet, believe it or not, if you can get past the |
| same series of races, you only need to cash 20 | | | | need to find "the winner" in every race and ignore |
| tickets to break even (4/1 odds) or make a lot | | | | your natural "follow the herd" mindset, you can |
| of money (higher odds). | | | | start making money at the track. |
| Odds-on favorites will never win enough races for | | | | It took me decades to learn that simple truth. |
| you to make money long-term. You would have | | | | Yet once I released myself from the restriction |
| to pick a minimum of 53% winners (assuming the | | | | of picking "the winner" in every race, I started |
| horse goes to post at those high odds of 9/10) | | | | making money. That is the reason I bet on |
| just to break even. For a 1/5 favorite, you need | | | | horses races. How about you? |
| to cash a ticket 84% of the time to break even. | | | | |