| One of the problems with using speed figures to | | | | stats. To determine how fast a horse will run |
| handicap horse races is that the horse's condition | | | | today, first look at its speed figures in its most |
| changes and speed figures, like all information, has | | | | recent races, even if those races were 10 |
| a shelf life. This is true of all information in life. | | | | months ago. Next, look at the trainer and see |
| For instance, there was a time when the average | | | | how he or she fares bringing horses back from a |
| life expectancy of a 45 year old man was only 65 | | | | layoff. If the horse had a figure of 90 in its last |
| in the United States. So if you are a 45 year old | | | | race, but was given a rest because it didn't |
| man, does that mean your life expectancy today | | | | perform well in that race, then you must go back |
| is only 65? Of course not, that figure has | | | | to a time when it did perform well and use that |
| changed over the years and that was then, this is | | | | as a guide to how well the horse can perform, |
| now. | | | | taking age and injury information into |
| What does this have to do with speed figures? | | | | consideration. |
| A horse who averaged a speed figure of 99 last | | | | Once you have determined how well the horse |
| year as a 7 year old does not necessarily have | | | | performed at the top of its form cycle, the next |
| an expectancy of a speed figure of 99 today. | | | | thing to look at is how it has done when coming |
| Once again, that was then and this is now. The | | | | back from a layoff in the past. If you are |
| problem for a handicapper who is trying to | | | | fortunate enough to have that information, then it |
| understand how fast a horse can run is how far | | | | is a clue as to how well the horse responds to |
| back to go with the speed figures. | | | | training and whether it needs real races to |
| The more recently a horse has raced and shown | | | | condition it. Some horses simply do not respond |
| the ability to be competitive, the more accurate | | | | as well to training as to real competition and |
| its latest figure is. While the old rule of thumb of | | | | therefore need several races for conditioning. |
| 30 days has not always held up, especially with | | | | Other horses are easier to condition and can be |
| classier horses or trainers who specialize in bringing | | | | brought back fit and ready to race. The clue to |
| horses back sharp, it still is a figure to use as | | | | that is the past performances. If you cannot |
| some kind of gauge. | | | | see how the horse has done off a layoff before, |
| On top of the problem of how far back to go | | | | look at the age, workouts, and record of the |
| with your figures, is the problem of the form | | | | trainer. Also look at the progression or |
| cycle itself. How many races has the horse had | | | | regression of speed figures from its last |
| in the last 60 days and how taxing were they? | | | | campaign. Put those clues together to arrive at |
| As you can see, it becomes impossible to assume | | | | an idea of how the horse will race and whether it |
| that any one figure will work for shelf life of | | | | will achieve the same speed figures or move |
| speed figures. | | | | ahead or start at a lower level of achievement. |
| But all is not lost, because of statistics and trainer | | | | |