| Pace handicapping is about understanding the | | | | reserves of energy that they can use to gain and |
| energy dynamics of a race and developing a | | | | sustain the lead. In fast paced races, mid-pack |
| successful predictive strategy. Knowing when and | | | | horses in good condition are always a threat to |
| how a horse is likely to use his energy can tell | | | | the frontrunners. |
| you remarkable things about a horserace before | | | | A problem with the mid-pack horse is that, being |
| the horses ever leave the gate. | | | | close to the lead, he is still vulnerable to over |
| Horses have a preferred method of running, and | | | | extending himself and falling prey to the same |
| left to their own devices, will usually run in the | | | | problems as the frontrunners. Although this |
| style that is comfortable for them. Knowing how | | | | happens less often than with frontrunners, it´s |
| each horse in a race is likely to behave will give | | | | still a consideration in fast paced races. |
| you valuable information about the nature of the | | | | Late Runners |
| race, which horses are at an advantage, and what | | | | Later runners are the horses that bring up the |
| the likely outcome will be. | | | | rear. They are usually in the bottom third of the |
| Three Horse Types | | | | pack. They are a poor bet in races where a |
| Although some handicappers use more, horses | | | | speed duel is unlikely. The major problem with this |
| are generally separated into three major pace | | | | running type is that in most races they are too |
| types: the frontrunner, mid-pack runner, and later | | | | far back when they finally make their move. |
| runner. Depending on the mix of pace types in a | | | | They are also logistically disadvantaged, having to |
| race, either initial speed or energy conservation | | | | come to the front through ranks of other horses, |
| will prove to be the winning approach. Determining | | | | or worse, on the outside. |
| which will be more important and which horse is | | | | The one scenario in which late running horses |
| up to the challenge is the goal of pace analysis. | | | | shine is when there is a very fast early pace. |
| Front Runner | | | | When a race results in a pace war with such a |
| Early pace horses want to run at the head of the | | | | brutally fast pace that even the mid-pack horses |
| pack. Their competitive nature is so prominent | | | | are compromised, or there are no quality |
| that if they are not able to run on the lead, they | | | | mid-pack runners, the late runners are likely |
| will usually fall out of contention completely. The | | | | candidates for the win. When this happens, the |
| more frontrunners in the race, the faster the | | | | payouts are usually huge. |
| early pace will be. This places early pace horses at | | | | Pace handicapping can be an important part of a |
| the risk of exhausting themselves before the final | | | | winning strategy if you take the time to evaluate |
| stages of the race, giving the mid-pack and late | | | | the race as a whole. Multiple early pace horses set |
| horses an opportunity to take advantage of their | | | | the stage for fast paced races. The faster the |
| reserves of energy to pass them. | | | | pace, the more likely an upset will occur, allowing |
| Mid-Pack Horses | | | | a horse running off the lead to gain the |
| Mid-pack horses like to stay behind the leaders, | | | | advantage. Predictive race analysis can tell you |
| but not too far back. As the lead horses begin to | | | | what racing style to look for in your candidate, |
| tire, mid-pack horses have good position and | | | | and what the potential pitfalls are. |