| People have been betting on horse races for | | | | favorite in almost every race. They often call |
| hundreds, if not thousands of years. The art of | | | | themselves handicappers. Therefore, as much |
| handicapping horse races has developed over the | | | | as 20% of the money bet on the favorite may |
| years into a fine science and art and the advent | | | | be based solely on the morning line. I have no |
| of computers has improved it many times. Yet, | | | | statistics and know of no studies that have been |
| on any given day, at any given race track, horses | | | | done on this subject, but based on my |
| continue to win races and to pay big prices. | | | | experience at the track, I'd say this is a fair |
| No matter how much information is available to | | | | guess. |
| the betting public, they still sometimes fail to spot | | | | Other punters simply bet the jockey or trainer |
| a horse that will win at long odds. Some people | | | | they like. They search the program, or simply |
| say it is because of the very nature of horse | | | | watch the post parade and spot their favorite |
| racing and the natural world. Horses are living | | | | rider or conditioner and that is where the win |
| creatures and therefore, unpredictable and | | | | money goes. The point I am trying to make is |
| subject to change. While that may be true, it | | | | that a lot of the money that goes into the win |
| doesn't account for the many longshots who | | | | pool does so capriciously. While the reasoning of |
| show promise in one way or another, qualify for | | | | the bettors may be sound enough, it isn't |
| the conditions of a race, and then win it. | | | | researched enough. |
| The real reason that longshots are found in the | | | | A good handicapper will spot a few factors that |
| winners circle is the betting public. While there | | | | don't seem to make sense and will dig deeper. |
| are some astute handicappers who break down a | | | | He or she may notice that this particular horse did |
| race and methodically piece it together until they | | | | win at this level before, but is now a long shot. |
| can assess a fair value and predict each runner's | | | | Digging deeper he or she may find that the horse |
| chances of winning, they are in the minority. | | | | had excuses in its last races or has just moved |
| There are many more people who use just one | | | | to a better trainer or one who specializes in |
| factor to determine who they will bet on. | | | | horses of this type. |
| While that one factor may vary from horse | | | | The point is, it takes time and effort to find good |
| player to horse player, it is safe to assume that a | | | | long shot bets, but they are out there. If you |
| portion of the win pool is determined by the | | | | know what to look for and are willing to do the |
| morning line odds. Some bettors look no farther | | | | research, you can be one of the few who cashes |
| than the morning line and will bet the morning line | | | | that big, heart pounding ticket. |