Why Long Shots Continue to Surprise Bettors at the Horse Races

People have been betting on horse races forfavorite in almost every race.  They often call
hundreds, if not thousands of years.  The art ofthemselves handicappers.  Therefore, as much
handicapping horse races has developed over theas 20% of the money bet on the favorite may
years into a fine science and art and the adventbe based solely on the morning line.  I have no
of computers has improved it many times.  Yet,statistics and know of no studies that have been
on any given day, at any given race track, horsesdone on this subject, but based on my
continue to win races and to pay big prices.experience at the track, I'd say this is a fair
No matter how much information is available toguess.
the betting public, they still sometimes fail to spotOther punters simply bet the jockey or trainer
a horse that will win at long odds.  Some peoplethey like.  They search the program, or simply
say it is because of the very nature of horsewatch the post parade and spot their favorite
racing and the natural world.  Horses are livingrider or conditioner and that is where the win
creatures and therefore, unpredictable andmoney goes.  The point I am trying to make is
subject to change.  While that may be true, itthat a lot of the money that goes into the win
doesn't account for the many longshots whopool does so capriciously.  While the reasoning of
show promise in one way or another, qualify forthe bettors may be sound enough, it isn't
the conditions of a race, and then win it.researched enough.
The real reason that longshots are found in theA good handicapper will spot a few factors that
winners circle is the betting public.  While theredon't seem to make sense and will dig deeper. 
are some astute handicappers who break down aHe or she may notice that this particular horse did
race and methodically piece it together until theywin at this level before, but is now a long shot.
can assess a fair value and predict each runner'sDigging deeper he or she may find that the horse
chances of winning, they are in the minority. had excuses in its last races or has just moved
There are many more people who use just oneto a better trainer or one who specializes in
factor to determine who they will bet on.horses of this type.
While that one factor may vary from horseThe point is, it takes time and effort to find good
player to horse player, it is safe to assume that along shot bets, but they are out there.  If you
portion of the win pool is determined by theknow what to look for and are willing to do the
morning line odds.  Some bettors look no fartherresearch, you can be one of the few who cashes
than the morning line and will bet the morning linethat big, heart pounding ticket.